I've disregarded the old blog and hopefully will be putting things up on the notes for you all to read and comment, bash, dispute (Dan Swartz) or just praise the wonderfulness that is my opinion (kidding of course). Anyone that knows me knows that I am an enormous Red Sox fan, well Boston fan in general...but that I can not stand Boston sports fans…for the most part. The people that go to the games and sit in the front rows with their business suits and the people who call up EEI have had me seriously thinking about moving to Pittsburgh to become a Pirates fan and paying 500 dollars for season tickets.
Listen I've heard the pros, I've heard the cons...I've heard the idiots on WEEI and “Loser” Nation cheering for the Buchholz Bus to leave town and bring in Halladay. Look, Halladay is a beast, a monster, an absolute force to be reckoned with, but the Red Sox in the short and long term do not need him. Now I'll be criticized, heckled or what have you because of this, but it doesn't make long or short term sense.
Despite their recent scoring struggles (thoughts on that to come later) the Red Sox have been the best team in the American League all year and have been playing as well as the Dodgers to fuel the debate on which team is the best in the MLB.
So, without further adieu here are my top five reasons why the Boston Red Sox do not make the Roy Halladay Deal:
1. “You can’t trade the farm Big O!”
Theo Epstein (despite most of his free agent blunders) has been a master of building up the farm system that was once the joke of MLB. Remember those late 1990 Yankees teams that won all those World Series. All you hear about was how it was the farm system that did it. Just to rattle off a few names, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neil, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, oh yeah and some guy named Derek Jeter. They were so important to those World Series teams that it served as the model to build a champion. It wasn’t until George went all money crazy and Luis Gonzalez hammered home the winning run in 2001, that the Yankees luck ran out. They began spending money, trading their farm away for big free agent’s to be (ahem, sound familiar) and now they haven’t had a serious chance other than 2003 to win a title (ahem, Josh Beckett...of the Marlins farm system).
2. Age
I’m a huge believer in using untested talent as bargaining chips to make your team better. Trading Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr for Pedro Martinez was the most significant trade in altering Red Sox history since this guy. But there’s a difference. At the time Pedro was 26 years old and entering the prime of his career, and his stat lines prove that. Roy Halladay is 32 and at the end of his current contract is going to be a 34 year old looking for his last big paycheck (and I don’t blame him in this economy). It is not worth bringing in a 34 year old pitcher at the tail end of his prime for a 2 year rental that is not guaranteed long term for a 23 year old that has outrageous stuff and has already thrown a no-hitter (something Pedro could never do...good job Expos offense).
3. Josh Beckett/John Lester/Tim Wakefield
Going into the playoffs you want to have 3 solid starting pitchers rolling along and there is no better three-headed monster in the major leagues right now. Yes I know Tim Wakefield is 87 years old and his stats probably aren’t going to keep up. However you know for a fact that Josh and John are going to continue to get better as the season goes on. Not to mention by September you will have a guy won 18 games last year with a sub 3.00 era with a fresh arm, not to mention John Smoltz/Penny which combined have been as good as a number 4 starter. The Red Sox have more depth than any other team in the league and it has shown the first half of the year. Long-term, why not have this foundation to move forward and be able to add Buchholz and Bowden to the rotation in the next few years. Potentially you have a rotation of Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, Buchholz, and Bowden. That is downright scary. If the last two live up to some sort of there potential you’re looking at a rotation with no worse than a number 3 starter at the BACK of your rotation for the next decade. Giving up the farm for a 32 year old ace with no guarantee of re-signing is too much.
4. Money
Roy Halladay this season makes $14.25 million with the number likely to be in the $14-16 million range next year. In his final year of his contract he will no doubt put up numbers worthy of CC Sabathia money, and no doubt some team out there will be able to/willing to give it to him. It just doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox to commit that kind of money for 2 years at the expense of possible re-signing Josh Beckett or Jonathan Pabelbon. I’m willing to part with Jonathan because he’s going to make K-Rod money and I really don’t think he’s worth it (aka BJ Ryan) and Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings to become the next arbitration special the Red Sox dote out to the mound. Beckett is the key here. He is 2 years younger than Halladay and is entering…repeat entering the prime of his career which is downright scary. I’d take him and the salary you would be paying Buchholz and/or Bowden long term over risking with Halladay who has been a career second half slow down machine.
5. Clay Buchholz’ Girlfriend
No seriously have you seen her? You really want see Doc Halladay pitching at Fenway over seeing this…potentially at a Clay Buchholz start? You have to be kidding me!
Listen Doc is a great pitcher who will probably win a Cy young either this year or next year to garner up for that monster contract. But it doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox to break up what they’ve built since Theo came along, for him. Plus why would Toronto trade Halladay anywhere near the AL East? They know the Yankees won’t part with Hughes and the Sox won’t part with one of their top tier guys. Halladay is better off heading to the National League where he will absolutely be a monster beyond proportions. If St. Louis really said, “Take 5 prospects you want for him.” I would absolutely do it on both fronts. Imagine facing the Cardinals in the playoffs with Halladay on the mound and Pujols in the line-up. RIDICULOUS
The BoSox are better off making a move at the deadline to improve their offense and/or get a replacement for when Jay Ray Bay skips town for more money. They need to look to the future in that sense. They have an aging Mike Lowell at third that can barely get on the field. Youkilis is starting to age a little bit. Bay will probably be gone and the man who is a human cigar is past 30. Not to mention the logjam/shitshow they have at shortstop. This team needs help but pitching is not the immediate one. They need to bolster their lineup which suddenly, even with Pedroia and Ellsbury has looked worn and old.
Please feel free to comment, suggest, dispute and we’ll make this an ongoing thing
Cheers,
Jared
